Hybrid warfare: the invisible threat to Estonia and beyond

Hybrid warfare: the invisible threat to Estonia and beyond. 13.02.2025. Hybrid warfare operates in the shadows, blending cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage with traditional tactics to destabilize nations while avoiding direct military confrontation. Russia has honed this strategy, employing it to advance geopolitical goals without triggering formal responses, such as NATO’s Article 5. “Russia will continue to push on all fronts to achieve its goals, including more hybrid warfare tactics,” explained Venables. These actions will fall below the threshold of armed conflict, complicating international responses and providing plausible deniability. The ambiguity of hybrid warfare “There’s no single definition of hybrid warfare, and that ambiguity is its strength,” Venables noted. Hybrid tactics deliberately operate below the threshold of international legal definitions of war, sidestepping the triggers that would invoke NATO’s Article 5 collective defence clause. Russia has been a key player in refining this strategy. From the 2014 annexation of Crimea – featuring the now-infamous “little green men” in unmarked uniforms – to the recent suspected targeting of undersea cables and constant cyberattacks, its methods blur the lines between state and non-state actions, complicating accountability and response. Hybrid warfare extends beyond physical and cyber threats into the psychological domain. Disinformation campaigns – such as those targeting the 2016 US presidential election – undermine public trust and influence political outcomes. Venables warned that sensationalist narratives, such as “Cyber Armageddon,” amplify fear and play directly into adversaries’ hands.“Russia wants us to be less supportive of NATO, the EU, and Ukraine,” he said. “Spreading fear serves their agenda. Instead, we need a measured, informed understanding of the threat.” China’s hybrid strategies further illustrate the global nature of the challenge. Its “three warfares” doctrine – psychological operations, media manipulation, and legal warfare – shows how hybrid tactics can exploit ambiguity to achieve geopolitical dominance. Actions like deploying unmarked naval personnel to harass foreign vessels in the South China Sea demonstrate this strategy’s effectiveness. Historically, Article 5 has only been invoked once, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States. That incident was a clear, conventional act of aggression. Hybrid tactics, however, intentionally blur these lines, complicating the decision-making process for NATO allies. Undersea cables: a critical and vulnerable asset Estonia’s experience with countering hybrid warfare has made it a leader in preparedness. “We’re under constant attack. But the fact that life continues relatively undisturbed is a testament to the hard work of those protecting us,“ Venables noted. Estonia, a pioneer in digital resilience, learned hard lessons during the 2007 cyberattacks attributed to Russian actors. These massive denial-of-service attacks disrupted critical systems and highlighted the vulnerabilities of a digitally dependent society. Since then, Estonia has invested heavily in cybersecurity, becoming a model for resilience. “We’re under constant attack. But the fact that life continues relatively undisturbed is a testament to the hard work of those protecting us.” Yet, vulnerabilities persist. Venables highlighted undersea communication cables as a particular concern. “Most of our internet traffic passes through these cables,” he explained. Their disruption would not only destabilize Estonian society but could trigger a NATO-level crisis if attributed to Russia. Would cutting undersea cables be seen as an act of war? Could it justify collective military action? These questions remain largely theoretical but highlight the complexities hybrid warfare introduces to traditional security frameworks. Because of that, securing these critical infrastructures must remain a national and regional priority. Venables noted the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines as a wake-up call. Such incidents demonstrate how critical infrastructure can be targeted under ambiguous circumstances, leaving nations and alliances struggling to respond decisively. Current hybrid threats to Estonia Hybrid warfare operates in ways that are often invisible to the average citizen. Venables identified three key threats facing Estonia: Disinformation: Russian-language media and social channels often target the country’s Russian-speaking population with pro-Kremlin narratives. Cyberattacks: while Estonia’s defenses have been effective, the constant barrage of attacks requires ongoing vigilance and resources. Economic dependence: relying on foreign technologies, particularly from adversarial nations like China, poses long-term risks. Self-sufficiency in critical sectors such as energy and food supplies is essential for resilience. The role of AI in future conflicts Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to reshape hybrid warfare. While its potential benefits are immense, Venables expressed concern over its misuse by adversaries. “AI is already here, and our adversaries are exploiting it to its full potential,” he said, noting how AI is used to enhance disinformation campaigns, develop advanced malware, and analyze vulnerabilities. The European Union’s regulatory approach to AI could limit its member states’ ability to keep pace with adversaries like Russia and China, which operate without such constraints. “While I’m excited about AI’s potential, I’m also fearful of the harm it could do if fully weaponized by our adversaries,” he added. “While I’m excited about AI’s potential, I’m also fearful of the harm it could do if fully weaponized by our adversaries.” Strengths and vulnerabilities of Estonia’s digital landscape As a global leader in e-governance, Estonia’s digital infrastructure is both a strength and a potential vulnerability. The country’s digital-first approach streamlines governance, enhances efficiency, and enables rapid innovation, but it also creates a larger attack surface for adversaries. “The more connected we are, the greater the target we become,” said Venables. He emphasized the need for continued investment in cybersecurity and critical infrastructure protection. “Although Estonia’s resilience against constant cyberattacks has been commendable, complacency is not an option. We cannot afford to relax. Even as we celebrate past successes, we must stay vigilant and proactive.” he warned. “Although Estonia’s resilience against constant cyberattacks has been commendable, complacency is not an option. We cannot afford to relax. Even as we celebrate past successes, we must stay vigilant and proactive.” Ukraine’s ability to maintain internet connectivity and power supplies during both cyber and physical attacks provides a blueprint for resilience. “Critical national infrastructure protection is absolutely vital,” said Venables. He highlighted the need for comprehensive security measures, from safeguarding power grids to educating the public about disinformation. Disinformation, particularly on social media platforms, remains a potent weapon. “A simple TikTok video or YouTube short can be as effective as a cyberattack,” he cautioned. He emphasized the importance of education and public awareness in recognizing and countering hybrid tactics. In addition, educating both young people and older generations on recognizing and resisting such tactics is essential. These efforts must be integrated into a broader strategy to counter hybrid threats. Estonia’s greatest strength, according to Venables, lies in its cohesive society. The country’s small, united population values its independence and traditions, creating a natural resilience against hybrid threats. “This cultural cohesion is something other nations can learn from,” he said. However, protecting this unity requires constant effort, particularly in countering divisive narratives aimed at Russian-speaking communities within Estonia. As hybrid warfare continues to test the resilience of nations, Estonia remains a beacon of preparedness and a reminder that even in the face of constant threats, unity and vigilance can prevail.