{"id":12576,"date":"2024-05-22T09:35:36","date_gmt":"2024-05-22T07:35:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trialoog.taltech.ee\/jaan-kalda-kas-eesti-vajab-tuumajaama\/"},"modified":"2025-04-22T00:34:42","modified_gmt":"2025-04-21T22:34:42","slug":"jaan-kalda-kas-eesti-vajab-tuumajaama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trialoog.taltech.ee\/en\/jaan-kalda-kas-eesti-vajab-tuumajaama\/","title":{"rendered":"Jaan Kalda: Does Estonia need a nuclear power plant?"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Has the development of the Energy Sector Development Plan 2035 taken into account the possibility that by 2035, almost every household and business could have its own solar power system?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4358,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[249],"tags":[408,501,503,492,502],"class_list":["post-12576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-green-transition","tag-nuclear-energy","tag-nuclear-power-plant","tag-renewable-energy","tag-trialoog-focus"],"acf":{"postbuilder":[{"acf_fc_layout":"text","type":"text","text":"

really like the weather forecasts on the Norwegian website yr.no \u2013 they present predictions with confidence intervals. Unfortunately, our own meteorological service doesn\u2019t do that \u2013 perhaps they assume that people can\u2019t read charts if there\u2019s too much information. In the field of investment services, good practice requires that clients be warned: the historical return of a fund does not guarantee the same return in the future.<\/p>\r\n

The draft version of the Energy Sector Development Plan ENMAK 2035, published by the Ministry of Climate, follows the model of our meteorological service: unfortunately, the document only presents forecasts without any error margins, and it is unclear which factors are used in the modelling. Among other things: has it taken into account the emergence of new-generation solar panels and the development of storage technologies?<\/p>\r\n

As of early 2024, the best commercial solar panels have an efficiency of about 24 percent. JA Solar\u2019s roadmap forecasts that by 2025, perovskite-silicon tandem solar panels will reach 29 percent efficiency, while multi-junction technologies already promise efficiencies close to 50 percent.<\/a><\/p>\r\n

Alongside technological advancements, the price per watt (in euros) of solar panels is also decreasing. The ENMAK 2035 draft presents nuclear power in a glowing light, as the best solution to our energy problems, but offers data on prices and CO\u2082 emissions without any references to the methodology or input parameters used. As a result, the figures come across like the smooth talk of a telemarketer.<\/p>\r\n

Every energy source has its pros and cons \u2013 if there were one ideal form of energy production, it would have already \"won\" long ago. Hydropower and geothermal energy are nearly perfect (as seen in Scandinavian energy prices), but unfortunately inaccessible in Estonia. Wind and solar power would also be nearly perfect if large-scale energy storage were available and affordable. Compared to wind and solar, the only \u2013 but major \u2013 advantage of nuclear energy is its independence from weather and seasons. The downside is risk \u2013 the probability of an accident is very low, but if it happens, the consequences are severe.<\/p>\r\n

There are significantly fewer wind energy resources in the world than solar energy. After all, wind is a by-product of a heat engine \u2013 the atmosphere \u2013 driven by the sun, and this heat engine is not very efficient. Still, wind energy resources are sufficient to meet humanity\u2019s needs, and wind and solar complement each other as renewable sources \u2013 when one isn\u2019t available, the other might be. Solar panels have the advantage over wind turbines in that they have no moving parts: what doesn\u2019t move doesn\u2019t wear out or make noise. In making strategic choices, it\u2019s important to remember that solar panel technology is developing much faster than competing technologies.<\/p>\r\n

In Europe, solar capacity grew by 27 percent over the course of 2023<\/a>; and it\u2019s not just large producers who are buying solar panels \u2013 small consumers are as well, and this latter process doesn\u2019t follow strategic planning. Has the development of ENMAK 2035 taken into account the possibility that by 2035, almost every household and a significant portion of businesses will have their own solar installations, and on sunny days, no electricity will be drawn from the grid \u2013 even in the case of strong financial incentives to do so?<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\r\n

The ENMAK 2035 draft presents nuclear power in a glowing light as the best solution to our energy problems, but gives figures for cost and CO\u2082 emissions without any references to the methodology or input parameters used. As a result, the numbers sound more like the slick pitch of a telemarketer.<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>","image":null,"align":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":3669},{"acf_fc_layout":"text","type":"text","text":"

What level of risk is acceptable?<\/h4>\r\n

Let\u2019s talk a bit about risk. Investors know that riskier investments usually come with higher expected returns \u2013 but also a greater chance of losing a large portion of the money. Average return and volatility go hand in hand. The same principle applies more broadly: some risks can be mitigated by purchasing insurance.<\/p>\r\n

So, if we want lower-risk energy, we must be willing to pay more. The key question is: how much risk is acceptable? Would you board a plane if the chance of it crashing were one in a billion? What about one in a million \u2013 or one in a thousand, or one in a hundred? Where do you draw the line? And what comfort is there in knowing the probability was one in a billion, if it\u2019s your plane that crashes? A state can approach this question by calculating potential monetary losses from, say, an air disaster \u2013 but for individuals, such risks carry meaning far beyond money. That\u2019s why it\u2019s understandable if residents of Letipea don\u2019t want a nuclear reactor in their backyard \u2013 no matter how clean or safe it claims to be.<\/p>\r\n

There\u2019s another consideration: humans and societies are complex systems \u2013 the whole is much more intricate than the sum of its parts, and our world is governed by randomness and unpredictability. This means that even with existing statistics, it\u2019s difficult to make reliable predictions about the future. That said, the more data we have, the more accurate our forecasts can become.<\/p>\r\n

A good illustration of this idea comes from a book I read as a child \u2013 Living Mathematics<\/em> by Yakov Perelman. A mathematician calculates that if they go outside and observe the gender of the first hundred passers-by, the probability that all of them would be male is infinitesimally small \u2013 even if they did the experiment over the entire lifetime of the universe. He makes a high-stakes bet based on this, and just as they step outside, a military parade begins.<\/p>\r\n

Currently, there are just over 400 nuclear reactors operating worldwide. The death toll from nuclear accidents is still dominated by Chernobyl. There\u2019s no consensus on the exact number of victims, but the most likely estimates suggest several tens of thousands \u2013 especially when considering illnesses caused by relatively low radiation doses. That\u2019s certainly more than the number of fatalities from airplane crashes, which in the past decade has averaged a few hundred per year. It\u2019s also important to remember that 400 is a small number \u2013 there are orders of magnitude more airplanes, and as a result, we\u2019ve been able to gather a much better statistical database on aviation safety.<\/p>\r\n

This is why it\u2019s nearly impossible to make a reliable estimate of the probability of a serious nuclear power plant accident.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\r\n

It is nearly impossible to make a reliable estimate of the probability of a serious nuclear power plant accident.<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>","image":null,"align":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":3976},{"acf_fc_layout":"text","type":"text","text":"

Too little data to decide<\/h4>\r\n

Let\u2019s compare this to another number \u2013 the number of deaths caused by airborne soot particles (PM2.5), which is reportedly over 4 million cases per year globally, mainly in China and India, but also in Latvia, where the figure is as high as 1,200 people annually. Estonia, with some of the cleanest air in the world, has just 160 such cases per year.<\/a> When comparing the emissions of soot particles from traditional power plants to nuclear power, the latter starts to seem like a relatively low-risk option...<\/p>\r\n

To sum up, we can say that there is simply too little data to properly answer the question posed in the headline. What Estonia needs now are solid projections on technological developments and thorough cost-benefit and risk analyses for a potential nuclear power plant \u2013 including proper error margins.<\/p>\r\n

And the residents of Letipea should not be labelled anti-technology or accused of narrow self-interest \u2013 for them, the risk of a nuclear plant is about more than money. If a strategic decision is based solely on a single column of numbers, generated by an unknown method, then it is no better than flipping a coin.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\r\n

If a strategic decision is based solely on a single column of numbers, generated by an unknown method, then it is no better than flipping a coin.<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>","image":null,"align":""}],"related_authors":[{"author":4364,"position":"Professor of theoretical and statistical physics at the Department of Cybernetics, TalTech"}]},"yoast_head":"\nJaan Kalda: Does Estonia need a nuclear power plant? - Trialoog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jaan Kalda explores whether Estonia needs a nuclear power plant, highlighting risks, uncertainties, and alternative energy developments.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/trialoog.taltech.ee\/en\/jaan-kalda-kas-eesti-vajab-tuumajaama\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jaan Kalda: Does Estonia need a nuclear power plant? 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